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Do you think all these natural disasters are trying to tell us something?

StaceyB
October 10th, 2005, 10:11 PM
It makes me wonder in fear what we have coming next. This year has been one severe disaster after another.

Prin
October 11th, 2005, 12:18 AM
They always come in waves. We only notice more because they're on the media more since the tsunami. Before that, if it wasn't a country we had huge profits from abusing, we didn't hear about it on the news... The fault lines aren't changing, and the hurricanes always start near the same area, don't they?

StaceyB
October 11th, 2005, 05:36 AM
The news says that we have entered the 100 yr cycle.

chico2
October 11th, 2005, 07:29 AM
I think it's a bit scary and it makes me realize how lucky we are living in Ontario,or I should say Canada.We also have had some natural disasters,ie the icestorm in Quebec and we had a tornade going straight down my street,,but nothing as devastating as other countries.
I believe to us,the Bird-Flu out of Asia is the biggest threat..it is slowly spreadin,Turkey,Romania and now a few cases in South America :eek:

Rick C
October 11th, 2005, 08:48 AM
It makes me wonder in fear what we have coming next. This year has been one severe disaster after another.

It tells me that we shouldn't be allowing millions of people to build beachfront in hurricane prone areas.

It tells me we should protect cities below sea level with inadequate dikes where we've denuded the oceanside marshes that were protecting us.

It tells me we shouldn't have people building along flood plains as is a common practice throughout the world, both developed and third world.

It tells me we shouldn't have millions of people living in mud huts along cliffs in earthquake prone areas.

I wouldn't blame the planet . . . . I would blame the people.

As far as disasters go, however, the death toll in these tends to pale in comparison to what you've seen in the past, although the Indonesia Tsunami was right up there.

Ranking historic death tolls from natural disasters at the link below, scroll down the page - the numbers from ancient times will surprise you:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_toll

Rick C
www.goldentales.ca

jjgeonerd
October 11th, 2005, 11:00 AM
It tells me that we shouldn't be allowing millions of people to build beachfront in hurricane prone areas.

It tells me we should protect cities below sea level with inadequate dikes where we've denuded the oceanside marshes that were protecting us.

It tells me we shouldn't have people building along flood plains as is a common practice throughout the world, both developed and third world.

It tells me we shouldn't have millions of people living in mud huts along cliffs in earthquake prone areas.

I wouldn't blame the planet . . . . I would blame the people.

As far as disasters go, however, the death toll in these tends to pale in comparison to what you've seen in the past, although the Indonesia Tsunami was right up there.

Ranking historic death tolls from natural disasters at the link below, scroll down the page - the numbers from ancient times will surprise you:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_toll

Rick C
www.goldentales.ca

I agree.

Some scientists believe global warming may be leading to increased storm activity, but at this point that is nothing more than a theory.

Roxy's_MA
October 11th, 2005, 11:17 AM
I think it is all just environmental cycles. My theory is global warming may speed up the cycles, but are not the cause of the natural disasters, of course i am no scientist.

Rick C
October 11th, 2005, 11:29 AM
Well, I think there's something to the global warming thing but that doesn't have a lot to do with earthquakes causing tsunami's, etc.

My point above is that we're putting people willingly in harms way, in the riskiest places imaginable and therefore humanity, not the planet, is probably to blame.

Rick C
www.goldentales.ca

jjgeonerd
October 11th, 2005, 12:05 PM
^^^ Very true. Humanity does have a knack for picking the worst places to live.

As far as global warming...the Science Channel just had a really interesting show on global warming. Basically it was theorizing that global warming is causing the ice caps to melt in the north pole, which introduces additional fresh water into the North Atlantic ocean. There is an ocean current (termed the Conveyor I think) there which travels from Canada towards England, carrying warm water with it, and thus warm air. The influx of the additional fresh water to this current is slowing it down. If it slows too much or stops the show theorized that England and the surrounding area will have extremely cold weather. This in turn would throw the whole northern hemisphere out of whack weatherwise and possibly start a period of glacial expansion (i.e. mini ice age). They have already measured increased fresh water levels in the current. Interesting show to say the least!

The problem with climate change is that everything works together. Scientists are able to study individual items, but the effect on the atmosphere as a whole is much too complicated to adequately understand. It is weird to think that global warming could actually trigger an ice age, but that is a leading theory...who knows if its right though?

Earthquakes are the exception. They have nothing to do with global warming.

Rick C
October 11th, 2005, 12:12 PM
A wonderful examination of one of the consequences of climate change in the Arctic was in the New York Times this weekend. . . . . the rush for riches in the high north:

You may have to register to view the article below or try putting the url in bugmenot.com to get someone else's ID and password

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/10/science/10arctic.html?hp&ex=1129003200&en=64e93c8fc877d5f2&ei=5094&partner=homepage

As a sidenote, I'm currently wading through the acclaimed Kimberley Robinson science fiction trilogy dealing with a futuristic and technically detailed rush to riches - as well as political gamesmanship - of another once forbidden territory, Mars. The books, from the 1990's, are Red Mars, Green Mars and Blue Mars.

Rick C
www.goldentales.ca

jiorji
October 11th, 2005, 12:13 PM
Some scientists believe global warming may be leading to increased storm activity, but at this point that is nothing more than a theory.

a theory??
LOL what more proof do they need??

jjgeonerd
October 11th, 2005, 12:32 PM
a theory??
LOL what more proof do they need??
The point being that there are a lot of unknowns when it comes to the earth's atmosphere.

Keep in mind that humans have only been studying weather for a 75-100 years or so...and keeping records of it for maybe 200 years. As far as the atmosphere goes, we've only had satellites to monitor things like the ice caps, ozone layer, etc. for about 30-40 years. In terms of geologic time (which is what the earth works on) that is a blip in history.

An example is there have been several ice ages...the last being about 10,000 years ago. It would make sense that following an ice age there would be a period of warming. So, is the current global warming natural, or are we causing it, or is it natural but we are accelerating it?

Are the holes in the ozone layer a natural variable phenomenon, or are we causing them?

Ice cores do provide a glimpse into history much further back, but they only tell what was happening then so we can compare with today and in between. BUT, are these changes natural, natural but accelerated by us, or all our fault? Difficult questions.

Anyway...it's all very interesting. Whatever the answer humans should be doing our best to limit the damage, just in case the answer to everything is that is IS all our fault. :o

Roxy's_MA
October 11th, 2005, 12:38 PM
I just think before blaming global warming, you have to look at the entire picture - records of the earth's weather for last billion years, and not just that last few centuries. There have been times in the past where the earth has been warmer than it is now. This happened before the ice age. You have to keep in mind the orbit of the planet over a billion years and other factors.

I found this was an interesting read about the history of the earth's climate.

http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7x.html

Rick C
October 11th, 2005, 12:51 PM
I agree.

I have no problem stating that evolution is a fact, not a theory, but I also have no problem stating that global warming is still a theory, although a likely one.

The earth has gone hot and cold on its own countless times in the past and that is simply a fact . . . . but man is having some impact these days and that is also undeniable.

Rick C
www.goldentales.ca

jjgeonerd
October 11th, 2005, 12:56 PM
I found this was an interesting read about the history of the earth's climate.

http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7x.html
Interesting link! :thumbs up I'd never seen that before.

Roxy's_MA
October 11th, 2005, 01:01 PM
The earth has gone hot and cold on its own countless times in the past and that is simply a fact . . . . but man is having some impact these days and that is also undeniable.

Rick C
www.goldentales.ca

I also agree that global warming has to have some impact. I see it as a contributing factor, not a cause. As I said earlier I think it is just speeding up some of the cycles.

melanie
October 11th, 2005, 04:54 PM
unfortunatly a certain amount of global warming should happen naturally, it has for aeons of time, but the living creatures on the planet have often been the catalyst for faster warming due to activity.

global warming does exist and countless evidence to prove it, but its a hard concept to accept and for many its about as easy to accept as death i think anyways. an example of global warming and its effects was given by the us agency nasa recently, i quote below



Alarm over melting Arctic ice cap
October 24, 2003 - 11:29AM




The north polar ice cap is melting at an alarming rate due to global warming, NASA scientists said today, with satellite images showing the ice cap continuing to shrink.

"It is happening now. We cannot afford to wait a long period of time for technological solutions," said David Rind of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

"Change is in the air - literally."

The part of the Arctic Ocean that remains frozen all year round shrank at a rate of 10 per cent per decade since 1980, NASA researcher Josefino Comiso said.

That cap reached record lows in 2002 and 2003, he added.

Researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration are worried because global warming speeds up as the ice cap melts, forming a vicious cycle.

"Snow and sea-ice are highly reflective because they are white," Comiso said.

"Most of the sun's energy is simply reflected back to space. With retraction of the ice cover, that means that less of surface is covered by this highly reflective snow and sea-ice, and so more energy has been absorbed and the climate warms."

US and Canadian scientists reported in September that the largest ice shelf in the Arctic off Canada's coast has broken up due to climate change and could endanger shipping and drilling platforms in the Beaufort Sea.

The Ward Hunt Ice Shelf had been in place on the north coast of Ellesmere Island in Canada's Nunavut territory for at least 3000 years.'


any global warming will affect us all and may increase the severity or frequency of natural disaster such as intense unseasonal rains or flooding causing landslides, or hurricane activity (global warming is aiding the intensity of wind speed in huricane event, up to 5-20% stronger), even this stupid drought (although elnino influence severity is greater with added effects from global warming).

eg in the 20th centuary temperatures rose by 0.6 deg celcius, and that resulted in a 15cm rise in sea levels, add another degree to that and were stuffed.

and as humans we can slow global warming, its just depends on weather ppl see things like burning coal as a necessity in comparison to longevity of life on earth, humans dont like change.

i have given up in a sense and jsut accepted that global warming is occuring and our times is limited, its as simple as that. we can increase that time or we can shorten it, its up to us....

as far as ppl living in the wrong places, its just amazing how many ppl are congregating on fault lines and the ever expanding and ever popular coastal areas, over 25% of australias population currently live on the east coast and that is rising with the rising age of our populaiton, that is their retiring to the coast. mad if you ask me, you may be paying for a water front now, but i assure you in 50yrs you will be buying a house boat instead.

sadly some ppl just dont have the choice we do, if an economic ctr is on a fault line or such well its jsut sad for them really, their is nothing to be done about it, esp in third world or less fortunate places than ours.


just to be a bit dramatic i will end with the wisdom of the legend, Jim Morrison who was qiute accurate when he sang

'this is the end, my only friend the end, ill never look into your yes again' :D :angel: lol what a drama queen :angel:

jjgeonerd
October 11th, 2005, 05:40 PM
[QUOTE=melanie]


as far as ppl living in the wrong places, its just amazing how many ppl are congregating on fault lines and the ever expanding and ever popular coastal areas, over 25% of australias population currently live on the east coast and that is rising with the rising age of our populaiton, that is their retiring to the coast. mad if you ask me, you may be paying for a water front now, but i assure you in 50yrs you will be buying a house boat instead.
QUOTE]
It's the earth playing a joke on us! :D Faults tend to cause things such as bays and inlets which are great for shipping and also very beautiful...so everyone moves there. The joke's on us when an earthquake hits! Places without natural disasters tend to be boring...at least in the US.

You should buy some property a few blocks off the ocean. When you're ready to retire you'll have waterfront property! ;)

StaceyB
October 11th, 2005, 07:13 PM
I am sure I am not saying this right because I only caught a bit on the news but here it goes.
Apparently many of the things that are happening are being caused by the magnetic pull from the sun.

CyberKitten
October 11th, 2005, 07:24 PM
Don't think I agree with the megnatic pull theory tho I do suspet global warming is partially responsible, warmer air contributes to more and later hurricaines. Someone asked me today at work if I thought the earthquakes in Pakistan et al are a rsult of so much oil drilling in the middle eat. I had been thinking all that pollution from war after war could not help but I don;t really know.

Has anyone heard about that radical meterologist who left his position in Idaho (I have a close friend who lives in northern ID and she has the most curious neighbours - Mark Furman, Ayran Nation ppl, and so on - makes me wonder about the state as I often kid her). Anyhow, this weather guy believes Japan or Russia or some terrorists are responsible for these things http://weatherwars.info/ - it's a little out there but it does make me wonder about what we don;t know and about global warming.

jjgeonerd
October 12th, 2005, 11:09 AM
Someone asked me today at work if I thought the earthquakes in Pakistan et al are a rsult of so much oil drilling in the middle eat. I had been thinking all that pollution from war after war could not help but I don;t really know.

Has anyone heard about that radical meterologist who left his position in Idaho (I have a close friend who lives in northern ID and she has the most curious neighbours - Mark Furman, Ayran Nation ppl, and so on - makes me wonder about the state as I often kid her). Anyhow, this weather guy believes Japan or Russia or some terrorists are responsible for these things http://weatherwars.info/ - it's a little out there but it does make me wonder about what we don;t know and about global warming.
I heard about the guy in Idaho...one word...WACKO!! :p My wife is from Idaho and I can safely say that 99% (OK...maybe 90%...it is Idaho :p ) people there hate this type of publicity. It makes them all seem like nut cases.

As far as the earthquake question your friend asked. You can assure them they are absolutely not related to oil drilling or extraction. Earthquakes are the result of movements of the earth's crustal plates in respons to convection currents within the earth's mantle. The system is MUCH too large to be affected by any puny thing us humans are capable of. Earthquake intensities or frequency are also not increasing...just that news coverage is more comprehensive than it used to be so we hear about all of them now.

pags
October 29th, 2005, 06:55 PM
For the record... :o I don't live in a beachfront community. 90% of the folks in my city do not live in a beachfront community... (as a matter of fact there is no 'beach' proper in Pascagoula) but 90% of the folks in my city are scraping mold off their walls after their houses flooded. On some level perhaps after the neighborhood flooded it would have been easier to handle if I had.. Then I could say "Ah well that's what I get for living on the beach..." Er.. but then again had we lived on the beach we would have qualified to buy flood insurance. Hmm. Kinda makes me want to move to the beach! :D

Okay all that aside... It's very easy for us to generalize and state that people move to 'disaster prone' areas because they are more attractive or more exciting... But doesn't mankind have a pretty long history of living near bodies of water for pretty obvious reasons other than aesthetics? So I admit we don't live here now because it's easier to fish than to forage for food.. (although it is kind of nice to still be able to go catch your dinner free of charge..) But we do live here simply because my husband is an engineer and he works on ships.. and there just aren't all that many shipyards a couple hundred miles from the water.

Katrina was a bizarre storm, for sure.. affecting wide swaths of areas that barely get wet when it rains.. let alone suffer catastrophic storm surge flooding. The way I feel today is this... if my house can suddenly be engulfed by the Gulf of Mexico because a Category 3 hurricane has moved inland over 90 miles away -- then there's just no totally safe place on earth. Stock up on your food and water and get out your camping gear cause it's gonna be a long winter, folks.

CyberKitten
October 29th, 2005, 09:27 PM
I agree Pags. It is bvery easy for us to sit here, quite comfortable and warm - and blame it on the people who live there. How could the folks in the 9th ward of New Orleans for example - who lived there largely because they may have been brought there by European slave traders and or my friend who lives at the Convent of the Sacred Heart in NO, whose ancesters moved there centuries aho. Can we honestly tell these ppl to move? Sure, some of them will - but there truly is no place like home. I saw the wrath of Hurricane Juan on the Maritimes a couple yrs ago and I would never move somewhere else simply because of that. Mind you, it was no Katrina but scary enough.

I do think people do not need to build in dangerous areas but the fact is the vast majority of people affected by Katrina did not have much choice about where they lived (Like the small children I cared for in Baton Rouge) or scores of ppl along the Panhandle, Miss, Alabama and La who do not reside on top of the water. I have two homes and both are near the water - I also have a woodlot that has water running through it but it is not a large body of water as compared to the other two.

We can prob blame the ppl who first built the urban areas on these waterways but even on that score, things were considerably different in the 17 th century. I think the important thing is to learn from these experiences and move on. I cannot personally imagine a US sans the unique culture that is New Orleans so I do hope they build the city again - and fix the levees so they actually work, not replicate what was there before!!

There have been epedemics like the Plague and the 1918 infleunza killer epedemic that have also wrecked havoc with our world. (Tho had some silly men not killed all the cats they believed to be wicked, the rats would never have infected the population and and... but I digress and that is another issue. Superstition et al). Chico, I worry more about the fat from the bird I ate on my thanksgiving table than the bird flu tho I will be getting a flu shot and like one of the most notable and emminant infectious disease experts in the country, I did buy some Tamiflu (mostly b/c my dad wanted some to take with him to Fla in the event there is a flu epedemic there, sigh) - it is temporarily unavail in Canada tho mostlly bec it is unwise to take it inappropriately and ppl were stockpiling, leaving public health depts short handed. (The govt should prob just make a deal with Roche to provide it or at least contract out to other companies. The prob with Tamiflu is that it needs compounds from 40 ingredients and about a year to produce - you don't just whip up a batch overnight).

Anyway - as usual, I am soooo offtrack!

Let's move away from the blame game and try to thin khow we can affect positive and sensible change!

jesse's mommy
October 29th, 2005, 09:52 PM
The way I see it is that this is part of life. It's something that is part of evolution, whether we contributed to it or not. We will find a way to deal with it and get through it. There will be casualties along the way, but humanity will survive and go on. There are always disasters -- natural like Katrina and manmade like 9/11 -- and we've managed to make it through and we will continue to do so. It's terrible to say, but we just have to deal with it, keep living the lives we are to the best of our abilities and it'll all work out in the end. We can't point the finger at anyone or anything, we just have to deal with it as it's handed to us. We are stronger standing together and getting through it as one than we are to stand as individuals. We will survive!

twodogsandacat
October 30th, 2005, 08:55 AM
I understand that many people tend to stay close to where they are raised Ė itís home.

I liked Louisiana and if I was raised there I donít think I would of left it easily. I live where I was raised and although there are many other fine places to live in the world none of them are home.

Itís easy to be sucked in too. I sat at the waters edge in the Suburban and looked out over the waterfront - I thought what a view - I could live here. Then I looked behind me and saw what was left of the homes of those that thought that before me. Ha, almost had me.